ConocoPhillips (COP)
High conviction
$146.51 · Oct 16 close
One of the largest U.S. independent oil and gas producers, with big Permian, Alaska and LNG assets.
- Setup
- New 3-month closing high at $146.51 (+9.3% on the week, +26.7% over 3 months), well above its 20-day average (~$131.64). Energy was a top S&P 500 sector this week as Brent hit $110 for the first time since May.
- Levels
- Entry $142-147Stop $135 (below this week's low)Target $158
- Catalyst
- Oil headlines from Hormuz and Russia/Ukraine; Q3 results Nov 5.
- Risk
- Very extended; a de-escalation headline could knock crude and the stock lower fast.
Last $146.51
Stop $135.00T1 $158.00
Entry $142.00–147.00
Reward / risk to T1 1.4 : 1
From entry midpoint to first target vs. stop
Sources: Price: Oct 16 close, closing prices from exchange market data · Filings: SEC EDGAR (COP) · All COP calls →
Read in the Week of October 19, 2026 issue →
RTX (RTX)
Medium conviction
$193.92 · Oct 16 close
Aerospace and defense giant behind Raytheon missiles, Pratt & Whitney engines and Collins Aerospace.
- Setup
- Jumped 3.7% Friday to $193.92 on about 1.8x normal volume, reclaiming its 20-day average (~$187). Fresh Navy and Pentagon awards (SM-6 deal worth up to $24.4B, SM-3 up to $6.3B) plus Middle East tensions are pulling money into defense.
- Levels
- Entry $189-195Stop $180.50Targets $200 (50-day average), then $210
- Catalyst
- Q3 earnings Tue, Oct 20 before the open.
- Risk
- Earnings next week is a coin flip; the stock is still below its 50-day average.
Last $193.92
Stop $180.50T1 $200.00 · T2 $210.00
Entry $189.00–195.00
Reward / risk to T1 0.7 : 1
From entry midpoint to first target vs. stop
Sources: Price: Oct 16 close, closing prices from exchange market data · Filings: SEC EDGAR (RTX) · All RTX calls →
Read in the Week of October 19, 2026 issue →
Walmart (WMT)
Medium conviction
$118.81 · Oct 16 close
The world's largest retailer, with a fast-growing e-commerce and advertising business.
- Setup
- Up 6.7% on the week and 11.3% over a month to $118.81, above its 20- and 50-day averages, as money rotates from tech into defensive leaders. It is pressing against its 3-month high of $121.38.
- Levels
- Entry $116-120, or add on a close above $121.38Stop $110.90Targets $128, then $134 (record close)
- Catalyst
- Defensive rotation while tech is under pressure.
- Risk
- If tech bounces hard, defensive leaders can lag.
Last $118.81
Stop $110.90T1 $128.00 · T2 $134.00
Entry $116.00–120.00
Reward / risk to T1 1.4 : 1
From entry midpoint to first target vs. stop
Sources: Price: Oct 16 close, closing prices from exchange market data · Filings: SEC EDGAR (WMT) · All WMT calls →
Read in the Week of October 19, 2026 issue →
Estee Lauder (EL)
Medium conviction
$104.54 · Oct 16 close
Global prestige beauty company (Estee Lauder, Clinique, MAC, La Mer) in the middle of a turnaround.
- Setup
- Up 25% over 3 months to $104.54 after a fiscal Q4 beat (organic sales +5%). Barclays upgraded it to Overweight ($108 target) and Morgan Stanley raised its target to $112.
- Levels
- Entry $100-105Stop $95.90Target $112
- Catalyst
- Analyst upgrades; fiscal Q1 results Nov 2.
- Risk
- China and travel-retail demand is still uneven; it pulled back 2.5% Friday from a 3-month high.
Last $104.54
Stop $95.90T1 $112.00
Entry $100.00–105.00
Reward / risk to T1 1.4 : 1
From entry midpoint to first target vs. stop
Sources: Price: Oct 16 close, closing prices from exchange market data · Filings: SEC EDGAR (EL) · All EL calls →
Read in the Week of October 19, 2026 issue →
UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Medium conviction
$401.43 · Oct 16 close
The largest U.S. health insurer (UnitedHealthcare) plus the Optum health-services and pharmacy business.
- Setup
- Beat Q3 estimates ($4.69 adjusted EPS vs about $4.13 expected) and raised its 2026 outlook to at least $20.50. The stock closed at $401.43, back above its 50-day average (~$387), on about 2x normal volume this week.
- Levels
- Entry $392-405Stop $371.90Target $437 (3-month high)
- Catalyst
- Managed-care rally after the 2027 Medicare Star Ratings; follow-through after the beat.
- Risk
- Lower Star Ratings could cut 2028 bonus payments; policy headlines hit the group fast.
Last $401.43
Stop $371.90T1 $437.00
Entry $392.00–405.00
Reward / risk to T1 1.4 : 1
From entry midpoint to first target vs. stop
Sources: Price: Oct 16 close, closing prices from exchange market data · Filings: SEC EDGAR (UNH) · All UNH calls →
Read in the Week of October 19, 2026 issue →