Week of October 19, 2026 — Griffin Research Group Weekly Market Letter

Market Backdrop

Rough week: the S&P 500 fell about 2% to 7,659.44 and the Nasdaq fell more than 4% (its worst week since June) on a hot inflation print and an AI/tech sell-off. Energy and consumer staples led as Brent crude closed at $109.86 on Strait of Hormuz attacks.

Section I

Short-Term Picks

Momentum, days to weeks

ConocoPhillips (COP)

High conviction

$146.51 · Oct 16 close

One of the largest U.S. independent oil and gas producers, with big Permian, Alaska and LNG assets.

Setup: New 3-month closing high at $146.51 (+9.3% on the week, +26.7% over 3 months), well above its 20-day average (~$131.64). Energy was a top S&P 500 sector this week as Brent hit $110 for the first time since May.
Levels: Entry $142-147Stop $135 (below this week's low)Target $158
Catalyst: Oil headlines from Hormuz and Russia/Ukraine; Q3 results Nov 5.
Risk: Very extended; a de-escalation headline could knock crude and the stock lower fast.

Sources: Price: Oct 16 close, closing prices from exchange market data · Filings: SEC EDGAR (COP) · All COP calls →

RTX (RTX)

Medium conviction

$193.92 · Oct 16 close

Aerospace and defense giant behind Raytheon missiles, Pratt & Whitney engines and Collins Aerospace.

Setup: Jumped 3.7% Friday to $193.92 on about 1.8x normal volume, reclaiming its 20-day average (~$187). Fresh Navy and Pentagon awards (SM-6 deal worth up to $24.4B, SM-3 up to $6.3B) plus Middle East tensions are pulling money into defense.
Levels: Entry $189-195Stop $180.50Targets $200 (50-day average), then $210
Catalyst: Q3 earnings Tue, Oct 20 before the open.
Risk: Earnings next week is a coin flip; the stock is still below its 50-day average.

Sources: Price: Oct 16 close, closing prices from exchange market data · Filings: SEC EDGAR (RTX) · All RTX calls →

Walmart (WMT)

Medium conviction

$118.81 · Oct 16 close

The world's largest retailer, with a fast-growing e-commerce and advertising business.

Setup: Up 6.7% on the week and 11.3% over a month to $118.81, above its 20- and 50-day averages, as money rotates from tech into defensive leaders. It is pressing against its 3-month high of $121.38.
Levels: Entry $116-120, or add on a close above $121.38Stop $110.90Targets $128, then $134 (record close)
Catalyst: Defensive rotation while tech is under pressure.
Risk: If tech bounces hard, defensive leaders can lag.

Sources: Price: Oct 16 close, closing prices from exchange market data · Filings: SEC EDGAR (WMT) · All WMT calls →

Estee Lauder (EL)

Medium conviction

$104.54 · Oct 16 close

Global prestige beauty company (Estee Lauder, Clinique, MAC, La Mer) in the middle of a turnaround.

Setup: Up 25% over 3 months to $104.54 after a fiscal Q4 beat (organic sales +5%). Barclays upgraded it to Overweight ($108 target) and Morgan Stanley raised its target to $112.
Levels: Entry $100-105Stop $95.90Target $112
Catalyst: Analyst upgrades; fiscal Q1 results Nov 2.
Risk: China and travel-retail demand is still uneven; it pulled back 2.5% Friday from a 3-month high.

Sources: Price: Oct 16 close, closing prices from exchange market data · Filings: SEC EDGAR (EL) · All EL calls →

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Medium conviction

$401.43 · Oct 16 close

The largest U.S. health insurer (UnitedHealthcare) plus the Optum health-services and pharmacy business.

Setup: Beat Q3 estimates ($4.69 adjusted EPS vs about $4.13 expected) and raised its 2026 outlook to at least $20.50. The stock closed at $401.43, back above its 50-day average (~$387), on about 2x normal volume this week.
Levels: Entry $392-405Stop $371.90Target $437 (3-month high)
Catalyst: Managed-care rally after the 2027 Medicare Star Ratings; follow-through after the beat.
Risk: Lower Star Ratings could cut 2028 bonus payments; policy headlines hit the group fast.

Sources: Price: Oct 16 close, closing prices from exchange market data · Filings: SEC EDGAR (UNH) · All UNH calls →

Section II

Long-Term Picks

Beaten-down, compounders, re-rates; 1-3 years

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

High conviction

$412.61 · Oct 16 close

The world's largest contract chipmaker; it builds the leading-edge chips for Nvidia, Apple, AMD and others.

Thesis: Quality compounder on sale. Q3 revenue rose 50.9% year over year with a 66.4% gross margin, and Q4 guidance ($52.3-54.3B) points higher. Yet the shares are down about 15% from the $487.47 high in the AI sell-off.
Catalyst: AI chip demand and TSMC's monthly sales reports.
Risk: AI spending pullback, Taiwan geopolitics.

12-month cases · our estimates

Last $412.61

Bear $366.00Bull $618.00

Base $504.00

Upside to base: +22.1% · Downside to bear: -11.3%

Bear 16× / Base 22× / Bull 27× on FY27E EPS $22.90 (consensus). 5-yr P/E 12–27× (median 24×). FY27E ADR EPS ~$22.90 = FY26E ~$16.97 (implied by 24.3× forward P/E) × 1.35 consensus growth.

Sources: Price: Oct 16 close, closing prices from exchange market data · Filings: SEC EDGAR (TSM) · EPS & P/E history: StockAnalysis (TSM, forecast) · EPS & P/E history: StockAnalysis (TSM, ratios) · All TSM calls →

Microsoft (MSFT)

Medium conviction

$529.05 · Oct 16 close

Software and cloud leader (Azure, Office 365, Windows), and a major AI platform.

Thesis: Durable compounder with recurring revenue and huge cash flow; buy on weakness during the AI-trade wobble. It is about 4% below its recent $551 high.
Catalyst: Fiscal Q1 earnings Oct 28 (Azure growth, AI revenue, capex).
Risk: Fiscal 2026 capex was about $175B and rising; investors may punish more spending.

12-month cases · our estimates

Last $529.05

Bear $475.00Bull $692.00

Base $593.00

Upside to base: +12.1% · Downside to bear: -10.2%

Bear 24× / Base 30× / Bull 35× on FY27E EPS $19.78 (consensus). 5-yr P/E 20–35× (median ~32×); bear assumes AI-capex de-rating.

Sources: Price: Oct 16 close, closing prices from exchange market data · Filings: SEC EDGAR (MSFT) · EPS & P/E history: StockAnalysis (MSFT, forecast) · All MSFT calls →

Fair Isaac (FICO)

Medium conviction

$771.19 · Oct 16 close

Maker of the FICO credit score and decisioning/fraud software used by most U.S. lenders.

Thesis: Beaten down: about 39% lower over 3 months, after regulators let lenders use VantageScore on equal terms. Early signs the moat holds: United Wholesale Mortgage will keep pulling FICO on every broker loan. A 15% job cut should protect margins. Shares rebounded 15.5% this week.
Catalyst: Lender adoption news; fiscal Q4 results in early-to-mid November.
Risk: Further mortgage share loss to VantageScore; over $5B of debt.

12-month cases · our estimates

Last $771.19

Bear $645.00Bull $1,587.00

Base $1,091.00

Upside to base: +41.5% · Downside to bear: -16.4%

Bear 13× / Base 22× / Bull 32× on FY27E EPS $49.59 (consensus). 5-yr P/E 23–70× (median 38×); bear compresses to 13× on VantageScore share loss, base at the low end of history.

Sources: Price: Oct 16 close, closing prices from exchange market data · Filings: SEC EDGAR (FICO) · EPS & P/E history: StockAnalysis (FICO, forecast) · All FICO calls →

Humana (HUM)

Medium conviction

$413.16 · Oct 16 close

A leading Medicare Advantage insurer serving seniors.

Thesis: Re-rate story. 95% of members will be in 4-star-or-better plans for 2027, up from 20% for 2026, which Evercore estimates could bring about $4.8B in 2028 bonus payments. The stock is about 9% off its $456.50 high.
Catalyst: Q3 results Nov 6; 2027 enrollment and pricing.
Risk: Already priced richly (about 25x forward earnings by one estimate); Medicare policy risk.

12-month cases · our estimates

Last $413.16

Bear $273.00Bull $512.00

Base $427.00

Upside to base: +3.3% · Downside to bear: -33.9%

Bear 16× / Base 25× / Bull 30× on FY27E EPS $17.08 (consensus). 5-yr P/E 15–21×; base/bull above range because FY27E EPS is still depressed and the 2028 star-rating bonus is not yet in EPS.

Sources: Price: Oct 16 close, closing prices from exchange market data · Filings: SEC EDGAR (HUM) · EPS & P/E history: StockAnalysis (HUM, forecast) · All HUM calls →

Nike (NKE)

Low conviction

$37.13 · Oct 16 close

The world's largest athletic footwear and apparel brand.

Thesis: Deep-value turnaround. It hit a 13-year low after revenue fell 4%, and it has a $2.5B cost plan. If the brand stabilizes, today's price could look cheap in 2-3 years. This is a patient, speculative idea, not a quick trade.
Catalyst: Investor Day Nov 17.
Risk: Analyst targets ($24-33) sit below the price; the cost savings mostly land in 2029-30.

12-month cases · our estimates

Last $37.13

Bear $26.00Bull $53.00

Base $40.00

Upside to base: +7.7% · Downside to bear: -30.0%

Bear 20× / Base 24× / Bull 32× on EPS $1.31 / $1.66 / $1.66 (consensus). 5-yr P/E 25–37× (median 28×); bear on FY27E $1.31, base/bull on FY28E $1.66 turnaround recovery.

Sources: Price: Oct 16 close, closing prices from exchange market data · Filings: SEC EDGAR (NKE) · EPS & P/E history: StockAnalysis (NKE, forecast) · All NKE calls →

Section III

Recommendation Performance

Week-over-week tracking of every published idea

Pick	Entry	Oct 16 close	WoW	Result	Status
Chevron (CVX)	$211.98	$224.99	+6.1%	+2.7%	Closed - target $217.78 hit Oct 13
Procter & Gamble (PG)	$151.23	$159.35	+5.4%	+2.0%	Closed - target $154.32 hit Oct 13
TJX Companies (TJX)	$138.76	$147.33	+6.2%	+6.2%	Open - first target $144.50 hit Oct 15; second target $150.85
Cloudflare (NET)	$360.93	$296.30	-17.9%	-8.6%	Closed - stop $330 hit Oct 14
Lamb Weston (LW)	$47.87	$53.59	+11.9%	+11.9%	Open - stop $45.50

Entries are Oct 9 closes. The ideas are one week old, so week-over-week equals since-pick. Result = exit level for closed ideas, Friday close for open ones. The 10 new picks start tracking from the Oct 16 closes below.

Four of five ideas from the first issue moved our way. Chevron and Procter & Gamble hit their targets, TJX hit its first target, and Lamb Weston is up 11.9%. Cloudflare was stopped out in the tech sell-off. Average result: +2.8% (closed ideas counted at their exit level).

Sources & methodology

Prices. Prices as of October 16, 2026 close. Closing prices and returns come from exchange market data; moving averages and 3-month highs and lows are calculated from that daily close history.

Company facts. Revenue, guidance, margins and earnings dates come from company earnings releases, investor-relations materials and SEC filings. Filings for each ticker on SEC EDGAR: COP · RTX · WMT · EL · UNH · TSM · MSFT · FICO · HUM · NKE.

Tracking. Performance compares each idea’s published entry with the latest close; ideas are not removed after the fact.